Incorporating social vulnerability in infectious disease mathematical modelling: a scoping review.

BACKGROUND: Highlighted by the rise of COVID-19, climate change, and conflict, socially vulnerable populations are least resilient to disaster. In infectious disease management, mathematical models are a commonly used tool. Researchers should include social vulnerability in models to strengthen their utility in reflecting real-world dynamics. We conducted a scoping review to evaluate how researchers have incorporated social vulnerability into infectious disease mathematical models. METHODS: The methodology followed the Joanna Briggs Institute and updated Arksey and O'Malley frameworks, verified by the PRISMA-ScR checklist. PubMed, Clarivate Web of Science, Scopus, EBSCO Africa Wide Information, and Cochrane Library were systematically searched for peer-reviewed published articles. Screening and extracting data were done by two independent researchers. RESULTS: Of 4075 results, 89 articles were identified. Two-thirds of articles used a compartmental model (n = 58, 65.2%), with a quarter using agent-based models (n = 24, 27.0%). Overall, routine indicators, namely age and sex, were among the most frequently used measures (n = 42, 12.3%; n = 22, 6.4%, respectively). Only one measure related to culture and social behaviour (0.3%). For compartmental models, researchers commonly constructed distinct models for each level of a social vulnerability measure and included new parameters or influenced standard parameters in model equations (n = 30, 51.7%). For all agent-based models, characteristics were assigned to hosts (n = 24, 100.0%), with most models including age, contact behaviour, and/or sex (n = 18, 75.0%; n = 14, 53.3%; n = 10, 41.7%, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Given the importance of equitable and effective infectious disease management, there is potential to further the field. Our findings demonstrate that social vulnerability is not considered holistically. There is a focus on incorporating routine demographic indicators but important cultural and social behaviours that impact health outcomes are excluded. It is crucial to develop models that foreground social vulnerability to not only design more equitable interventions, but also to develop more effective infectious disease control and elimination strategies. Furthermore, this study revealed the lack of transparency around data sources, inconsistent reporting, lack of collaboration with local experts, and limited studies focused on modelling cultural indicators. These challenges are priorities for future research.

Factors Associated with Ureteral Stent Failure in Patients with Malignant Ureteral Obstruction.

Introduction: Management of malignant ureteral obstruction (MUO) with ureteral stents remains a clinical challenge, often involving frequent stent exchanges attributable to stent failure or other urological complications. We report our institutional experience with ureteral stents for management of MUO, including analysis of clinical factors associated with stent failure. Methods: We performed a retrospective review of patients treated with indwelling ureteral stents for MUO in nonurothelial malignancies at our tertiary-care institution between 2008 and 2019. Univariate Cox proportional hazards analysis was performed to identify clinical variables associated with stent failure and stent-related complications. Stent failure was defined as need for unplanned stent exchange, placement of percutaneous nephrostomy (PCN), or tandem stents. Results: In our cohort of 78 patients, the median (range) number of stent exchanges was 2 (0-17) during a total stent dwell time of 4.3 (0.1-40.3) months. Thirty-four patients (43.6%) developed a culture-proven urinary tract infection (UTI) during stent dwell time. Thirty-five patients (44.8%) had stent failure. Twenty-two patients (28.2%) underwent unplanned stent exchanges, 23 (29.5%) required PCN after initial stent placement, and 6 (7.7%) required tandem stents. Ten (28.6%) patients with stent failure were treated with upsized stents, which led to resolution in seven patients. Stent failure occurred with 20/44 (45.4%) Percuflex™, 15/27 (55.6%) polyurethane, and 2/3 (66.7%) metal stents. In patients with ≥2 exchanges (N = 45), median time between exchanges was 4.1 (2.0-14.8) months. Bilateral stenting and history of radiation predicted UTI development. Median overall patient survival after initial stent placement was 19.9 months (95% CI 16.5-37.9 months). Conclusions: Ureteral stent failure poses a significant medical burden to patients with MUO. Better methods to minimize stent-related issues and improve patient quality of life are needed. Using a shared decision-making approach, clinicians and patients should consider PCN or tandem stents early in the management of MUO.

Ten-Year Experience with Percutaneous Cryoablation of Renal Tumors: Tumor Size Predicts Disease Progression.

Introduction: Percutaneous cryoablation (PCA) has emerged as an alternative to extirpative management of small renal masses (SRMs) in select patients, with a reduced risk of perioperative complications. Although disease recurrence is thought to occur in the early postoperative period, limited data on long-term oncologic outcomes have been published. We reviewed our 10-year experience with PCA for SRMs and assessed predictors of disease progression. Materials and Methods: We reviewed our prospectively maintained database of patients who underwent renal PCA from March 2005 to December 2015 (n = 308). Baseline patient and tumor variables were recorded, and postoperative cross-sectional imaging was examined for evidence of disease recurrence. Disease progression was defined as the presence of local recurrence or new lymphadenopathy/metastasis. Results: Mean patient age was 67.2 ± 11 years, mean tumor size was 2.7 ± 1.3 cm, and mean nephrometry score was 6.8 ± 1.7. At mean follow-up of 38 months, local recurrence and new lymphadenopathy/metastasis occurred in 10.1% (31/308) and 6.2% (19/308) of patients, respectively. Excluding patients with a solitary kidney and/or von Hippel-Lindau, local recurrence and new lymphadenopathy/metastasis occurred in 8.6% (23/268) and 1.9% (5/268) of cases, respectively. Kaplan-Meier estimated disease-free survival was 92.5% at 1 year, 89.3% at 2 years, and 86.7% at 3 years post-PCA. Increasing tumor size was a significant predictor of disease progression (hazard ratio 1.32 per 1-cm increase in size, p = 0.001). Conclusions: PCA is a viable treatment option for patients with SRMs. Increasing tumor size is a significant predictor of disease progression following PCA.